This is a reprint of an article by Jeff Weinstein in Hotels magazine online on 6/7/2017:
HVS’ Hotel Valuation Index (HVI) Overview Report on 38 U.S. markets and the nation was released this week, indicating which market areas are experiencing positive valuation trends and, thus, may present good investment opportunities.
Here is the overview in a nutshell:
- Values in most U.S. markets are expected to remain generally stable for the next three years.
- If you are looking to the market to deliver value appreciation, be prepared to wait eight to 10 years. For the next several years, ROIs will be driven by property related strategies, not by overall market appreciation.
- New supply is not a significant risk in most markets because supply is being absorbed; construction financing is becoming more challenging; and entrepreneurial incentives have been declining for the past couple of years.
- It is still unclear how the current administration’s policies will affect labor availability, interest rates, and corporate taxes, among other variables. These will all influence hotel values.
- Cap rates have increased slightly.
- Seattle, Portland and Denver have more limited potential for value appreciation due to significant new supply.
- Cleveland, Wilmington, Delaware, and other tertiary markets have the potential for the most near-term value appreciation because of a small development pipeline. Houston is also recovering from its valuation decline caused by low oil prices.
- New York is still one of the top-performing markets in the country, showing resilience in demand and occupancy; however, rates and profitability are anticipated to be challenged until 2020. RevPAR is expected to be recovered by then. Large supply increases are getting absorbed and are expected to continue, but it is having a negative impact on rate. Tourist arrivals remain at an all-time high. Values are expected to remain stable. Cap rates remain between 5% and 6%, and in the low single digits for luxury properties.
- Major gateway cities are still very attractive for international buyers.